It didn’t take long for Democrats’ hopes of flipping Texas to dim.

Enthusiasm remains high for the party’s Senate nominee, James Talarico, but national Democrats aren’t sure how far they should go to support him — particularly if Sen. John Cornyn emerges from the GOP runoff in May. Interviews with nearly a dozen high-dollar donor advisers and strategists poured cold water on the likelihood that the party would fully commit to the staggering price tag it’d take to finally flip Texas.

“No one’s taking Texas seriously,” said a Democratic bundler who, like most others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about intra-party dynamics.

Among their concerns is that Cornyn did better than expected in the GOP primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton, and with President Donald Trump’s potential endorsement would be able to ease his runoff victory. Democrats planning for Talarico to compete against Paxton, a scandal-ridden MAGA darling, are instead facing the prospect of trying to oust a 24-year moderate incumbent in a state that hasn’t voted for a Senate Democrat in nearly four decades.

There are also competing priorities for national spending — just Wednesday evening, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) dropped his re-election bid in a state Senate Democrats held as recently as 2018 — potentially elevating it as a target for spending.

Underlying it all, Democrats said, is the reality that contesting Texas would require a massive injection of cash — while there are other, cheaper options on the Senate landscape.

“We have to be practical about how we use our resources,” said Alex Hoffman, a Democratic donor adviser. “You need a perfect storm to kill a white whale, and if it’s going to be Cornyn [in the general election], then it’s not a perfect storm.”

Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue. But the idea of flipping the state — much less retaking the Senate overall — appeared laughable last year, when the party hit new lows in its public polling and sustained sweeping losses in 2024. But a string of overperformances in off-year and special election races, combined with Trump’s own stubbornly low approval rating, have Democrats increasingly bullish about their chances.

“If I’m being super honest, Texas would not be within the reach of our boat here, as fishermen of the white whale, but for the wave moment we’re in,” said Tory Gavito, a Democratic donor who leads the progressive donor network Way To Win.

Tuesday’s results gave them another boost when Talarico, a social media star and prolific grassroots fundraiser, easily dispatched Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). He now has a head start on Republicans, who after already dropping $70 million to lift Cornyn, must continue battling it out for another two and a half months through a runoff — which some are predicting could cost upwards of $100 million.

Texas Democrats see this as the moment to strike. Gavito said Democrats have built to this moment, cycle after cycle. Back in 2014, when President Barack Obama won with a young, multi-racial coalition, Democrats believed it was just a matter of time before they’d eventually flip Texas, a youthful, diverse state.

But Trump, both in 2016 and 2024, whittled down Democrats’ advantages with young, diverse voters, suggesting Texas was further out of reach than they thought. Then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), boosted by more than $80 million, came the closest in 2018, losing to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. When former-Rep. Colin Allred tried to oust Cruz in 2024, he lost by 8.5 points.

Gavito said it would be “important” for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ top Senate super PAC, to invest in Texas to actually flip it because even though “Talarico has proven he can raise a bunch of non-corporate money … leadership, like Schumer, should see that their job is to be bullish.”

She also argued against Democrats having to pick between investing in Texas or other states — “you can do both things,” she said.

That’s a tall ask in a cycle when Democrats are already struggling mightily in the money race.

House and Senate Republicans entered 2026 with more than double the cash equivalent of their Democratic counterparts. The Republican National Committee has a more than $100 million cash advantage over the Democratic National Committee. Should the Supreme Court lift coordination limits, a looming decision cited by several donor advisers, then they believe Republicans will have an even more lopsided advantage.

“If the goal is to win the House and Senate, then there are other, cheaper, more competitive places,” said a Democratic consultant who works on Senate races. “Do you want to try to get another $150 million for Texas or another $50 million to put Iowa or Montana or Nebraska in play? That’s the Schumer calculation.”

Before Tuesday’s primary, Schumer hadn’t placed Texas in the DSCC’s top tier of battleground races. Instead, North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska ranked highest in his list of offensive targets. That could change, however, should Paxton ultimately emerge from the runoff.

“If Paxton wins the runoff, the race is on the battleground list,” a person familiar with the DSCC’s thinking said, granted anonymity to describe private conversations. “If Cornyn makes it out, I wouldn’t count it out [either].”

When asked about Texas on Wednesday, Schumer said “Tuesday’s results in Texas are a step forward in our quest to win the Senate,” and called Talarico “a great candidate, and we can win.”

SMP spokesperson Lauren French reiterated that “the majority runs through Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Alaska, and North Carolina … but it can also run through Texas.”

Republicans, for their part, continue to scoff at the idea Texas is competitive. In a statement, NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell said: “James Talarico thinks ‘God is nonbinary,’ wants to lay a welcome mat on our southern border, and would prioritize the rights of our ‘trans community’, all things Texans will never vote for in November.”

Even if Democrats can’t ultimately flip Texas in November, they believe Talarico’s campaign — and a potentially weakened Cornyn — will force the GOP to spend cash to defend it, turning it into “a money sinkhole for Republicans,” said Cooper Teboe, a Democratic donor adviser and strategist.

“Do we win Ohio by one [percentage point] because of this?” Teboe added.

Some Republican strategists are warning of the possibility.

“In every race, from this point until November, there’s going to be the Texas undertones: You spent $70 million there to protect an incumbent,” a GOP strategist said, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “I think there is some frustration amongst the consulting class of like, all right, can we focus on Georgia and Michigan, some of these other places a little bit more?”

Erin Doherty contributed to this report. 

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