Republicans appear increasingly anxious that the economic fallout from the Iran war could cost them their House and Senate majorities. They have one more chance to stage a symbolic jailbreak — and it’s not clear enough of them are ready to take the leap.

The Senate will vote as soon as Thursday on another measure aimed at halting the war, giving Democrats likely their final opportunity to put their GOP colleagues on the record before leaving town until after the midterms.

At least four Republicans are expected to support the Democratic-led effort: Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. With Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) expected to vote against reining in Trump’s military authority in the Middle East, Democrats need one more Republican to break ranks, presuming there is full attendance on both sides of the aisle.

That puts the Senate on the brink of a final pre-election rebuke of President Donald Trump’s approach to the overseas conflict that has contributed to the skyrocketing fuel prices plaguing GOP candidates on the campaign trail — and the first time since this summer that a Democrat-driven war powers resolution has been successful in the chamber.

Retiring Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a potential fifth GOP vote, said Wednesday he was undecided on whether or not to support the effort.

“I have spoken with people in the administration,” Cassidy said in an interview about outreach he’s gotten as he weighs his vote. “I think we all know that it’s a difficult situation — and so again, everybody wants ‘is it yes, or it is no’ and that’s not the case, so I’ll just leave it at that.”

GOP leaders have been closely watching members to see if Democrats will pick up additional votes.

“We’re constantly, of course, checking,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said when asked about the possibility of more Republicans voting for the resolution. “But I would hope that the team could hang together on this.”

In a positive sign for Thune and the White House, not every Republican who is now actively distancing themselves from the war in Iran, or publicly kvetching about high energy prices, is expected to cross party lines on the war powers vote. But it’s exposing the complicated dynamics inherent in splitting from Trump, even for incumbents running in competitive races where the issue could cost them their seats.

The resolution, unlike many of the others the Senate has voted on since the conflict began nearly eight months ago, is non-binding, meaning it won’t go to Trump for his signature. Yet Republicans know that isn’t likely to stop it from sparking Trump’s wrath, after the president privately fumed about the intra-party defections on war powers resolutions during a closed-door lunch with Senate Republicans earlier this year.

Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who said in an interview Tuesday that “the war needs to come to an end as quickly as possible so that we can lower gas prices,” has said he won’t support the Democratic-led war powers resolution. He’s in a tight race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is also running in a tough reelection campaign, just this week proposed a temporary ban on diesel imports for the length of the Iran conflict — which some Republicans but not all argue would bring down costs. But a spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment Wednesday regarding how the senator planned to vote on the war powers resolution.

Sullivan also declined to comment as he was walking through the Capitol Wednesday evening, saying that he was “in a meeting.”

Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who named high gas prices as one of his lows last week in a social media video, is also expected to oppose the resolution believing an abrupt end to the war could spark national security concerns, according to an aide. He is not up for reelection for another four years.

Thune acknowledged the political crunch when asked Wednesday about some GOP candidates who are distancing themselves from Trump on both the war and rising energy costs.

“If I’m running in an environment like this, obviously you’re going to develop a campaign and a message that can win in your state,” Thune told reporters. “And so I encourage most candidates to run their own campaigns.

Asked if there was voter fatigue with the war, he added: “There’s voter fatigue with high gas prices. … It’s an economic frustration, and that’s why, again, I hope the administration is laser-focused on trying to get the strait open, get the shipping lanes opened up and help out with that global energy supply, because that ultimately will bring prices down.”

However, the Senate’s vote comes as Republicans are signaling alarm that the Iran war and the associated spike in energy and gas prices could hurt their candidates, even in typically red states that Trump carried in 2024.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers — who is trying to flip retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ seat in Michigan — and Rep. Ashley Hinson — who is trying to succeed departing GOP Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa — have both called in recent days for the Iran war to end. Rep. John James, the Republican candidate for governor of Michigan, has also endorsed an end to the war.

Iowa Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn also voted last week for a resolution in the House to end the Iran conflict. Asked about the shift in stance among fellow Iowa Republicans, Ernst told reporters that they are in “tough elections.” “I would like the administration to come back with a very clear plan on how we bring this to an end,” Ernst added separately on Wednesday. “I do support the president, but this is really having an impact on everyday Americans.”

Ernst and other members of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday met with Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, for a classified briefing on the ongoing war against Iran. Lawmakers said the session included in-depth discussions about military readiness and munitions stockpiles, but not a concrete plan for when the conflict will be resolved.

“You all know about as much as I do on that,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told reporters as he left the meeting. “They didn’t really offer anything on an ending.”

That has become a point of frustration even for GOP supporters of the war. Trump throughout the spring repeatedly predicted the fight would only last for a few more weeks, but he ditched those pledges as fighting continued through the summer.

Pressed if Republicans were ready to end the war in Iran, Thune said “everybody wants to see wars come to a conclusion” and that he believed the administration was working “aggressively to make that happen.”

Ernst said this week she wants “to have a clear understanding on how the administration is going to bring this to an end” — but also that she would “probably” keep voting against the war powers resolutions.

Leo Shane III contributed to this report. 

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