Samajwadi Party national president Akhilesh Yadav during a visit to Raebareli. (PTI photo)

NEW DELHI: Is Uttar Pradesh all set to go the Bihar way for the opposition’s INDIA bloc? Wait, we are not talking about the results yet. This is about the all-too-familiar alliance strains between INDIA bloc allies – the Samajwadi Party and the Congress in the run-up to UP assembly elections early next year.On Thursday, Akhilesh Yadav unveiled the Samajwadi Party’s ‘PDA Rath’ which he will use for a statewide campaign in the run-up to the 2027 assembly poll. While his fight is against the BJP, the first stop of his rath was Raebareli – a Congress bastion represented by the Gandhis for decades.Also, while Akhilesh targeted the BJP, he had a clear message for the Congress also.“Alliance will happen. We will also go with the alliance. Winnability will be the criteria for deciding seats. For us, it is not about seats, it is about victory. Whosoever can win can take the seat.”This was not an isolated remark. The SP and the Congress have been engaged in a war of words over seat sharing for quite some time now. The open fight has an uncanny resemblance to how events had unfolded between the INDIA bloc allies in Bihar.

INDIA bloc’s failed Bihar experiment

Cut to the 2025 Bihar assembly elections.INDIA bloc allies – the RJD and the Congress engaged in a continuous war of words in Bihar over seat-sharing and CM face, while the BJP-led NDA managed a smooth division of seats. What started as public posturing between INDIA bloc allies ended up in public sparring between them as the divided opposition alliance was decimated in the polls.The two parties campaigned separately for most of the time as they could not agree on seat sharing. They took out separate yatras across the state. While Rahul Gandhi undertook the “Vote Adhikar Yatra,” RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav went across the state with his “Bihar Adhikar Yatra.” Ironically, it was the success of the two yatras that boomeranged on the alliance as it made seat-sharing bitter and difficult.In the run-up to the Bihar elections, Tejashwi Yadav was confident of a sweep. The Congress was also not willing to budge, guided by its improved showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the state. The two parties used pressure tactics against each other. So much so that the INDIA bloc went into the elections as a divided house despite last-minute agreements and adjustments to keep the alliance intact.Uttar Pradesh appears to be headed the same way, at least as of now. We have already seen a lot of public posturing and sparring between the leaders of the INDIA bloc partners. Both the Congress and the SP have repeatedly claimed that the opposition’s fight against the BJP can be led only by their respective leaders.The SP and Congress contested the 2024 Lok Sabha polls together in Uttar Pradesh and won 43 seats between them, with the SP winning 37 and the Congress six. The alliance also won the Faizabad seat, which includes Ayodhya, where the BJP won in 2019.And that is perhaps where lies the genesis of this power tussle. Both the SP and the Congress feel that it was their party and leader who played a greater role in the 2024 electoral success and hence want the advantage to flow accordingly in seat sharing for the assembly elections.

Rahul or Akhilesh vs BJP

One look at the latest broadside between the two parties and we know why seat sharing between them may not be smooth.Recently, Samajwadi Party MP from Kairana Iqra Hasan and Congress MP from Saharanpur Imran Masood, both elected in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as part of the SP-Congress alliance, publicly pitched their respective party leaders to take on the BJP.“Only Rahul Gandhi is the opposition voice across the country, which unnerves the BJP. Rahul ji has done the hard work and created a favourable atmosphere. So make no mistake, nothing is possible without Rahul ji, and no one should have any doubts about this,” Masood said.Days later, Hasan responded and pitched SP chief Yadav as the key to the alliance’s prospects.“Only Akhilesh Yadav is capable of defeating the BJP. On its own, the Congress won’t be able to achieve much,” she said.Last week, Congress Uttar Pradesh in-charge Rajendra Pal Gautam signalled a firm stance regarding upcoming electoral negotiations and said that any seat-sharing arrangement with the Samajwadi Party (SP) must be built on mutual respect and equal standing.Clarifying reports regarding seat distribution, Gautam claimed that formal discussions with the SP have not yet begun. While expressing open flexibility for minor adjustments, he stressed that the Congress would not compromise its organisational self-respect or dignity in any prospective deal.“We have made one thing very clear. The Congress is the country’s oldest party. It was the Congress that led the freedom struggle. Any alliance formed will be based on mutual respect; there will be equal partnership and dignity. Sure, we can show some flexibility; there might be minor adjustments, but we cannot compromise on our dignity,” the Congress leader said.The contrasting assertions come despite messages of unity from both sides of the divide. Akhilesh is riding high on SP’s Lok Sabha success in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress, which is trying hard to revive its lost electoral fortunes, does not want to compromise on its expansion plans in one of the most politically important states.

The Owaisi factor

The problem is that both the parties are wooing the same social base in the state – minorities, Dalits, women, youth. Akhilesh is missing no opportunity to expand his PDA’s – Pichda Dalit and Alpsankhyak – base by making concerted attempts to include Pandits, Aadhi aabadi (women) and other social groups. The Congress is also wooing the Brahmins, the Dalits and the women in a big way.What the two bickering allies don’t realise that there are several other parties who are also reaching out to the same social base. For instance, Mayawati and Chandrashekhar Azad are also going all out to woo Dalits. Then there is Owaisi, who has already put both the parties in a Catch22 situation by offering them an alliance against the BJP. Owaisi’s proposal is like a double-edged sword for the two parties. If they accept his offer, the BJP will gun for them.