Senate Republicans are privately ready for a post-election Supreme Court nomination fight that may never come.
There aren’t too many signs from the two oldest justices — 78-year-old Clarence Thomas and 76-year-old Samuel Alito — that either plans to retire in the coming months and force Republicans to spring into action to fill a vacancy.
But the two men would face a mountain of pressure to step down in the lame-duck period if Democrats retake the Senate, which could essentially shut down confirmations of President Donald Trump’s favored nominees.
Such a retirement announcement would kick off a chaotic sprint on Capitol Hill, giving Republicans just five scheduled session weeks to cobble together 50 votes for a Trump nominee.
Republicans in a position to act said in recent interviews they would certainly try to rapidly confirm any Trump pick.
“We would proceed quickly with such a vacancy,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley said “of course” they would. Sen. Thom Tillis, a frequent Trump critic who could single-handedly bottle up a nominee in Judiciary, said he would “absolutely” support a post-election confirmation.
“You’ve got to use your majority position to take that vote,” Tillis said.
Several senators, including Thune, are skeptical a vacancy even happens. Alito told Bloomberg News in an interview published Tuesday he would “stick around” at least until the court’s current term ends early next summer. Thomas hasn’t publicly addressed his retirement in years and has otherwise given no signs of imminent plans to quit.
“I don’t know why you assume there will be one,” said Sen. Susan Collins, another potentially pivotal vote who left the door open to filling any vacancy, pointing to her longstanding position that “as long as it’s not close to a presidential election that we should proceed.”
Still, some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle with battle scars from prior confirmation fights over Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett and Ketanji Brown Jackson aren’t ready to entertain the thought of a lame-duck confirmation sprint.
“Oh, gosh,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski. “You’re giving me the chills.”
What else we’re watching:
— INSIDE COONS’ ISRAEL TURNABOUT: Sen. Chris Coons is likely to chair Foreign Relations if Democrats win the Senate, and — in what he describes as a “fairly sharp break” in his thinking — he’s not ruling out sanctions on Israel’s prime minister. The Delaware senator’s evolution matches that of other moderate Democrats in the three years since Hamas’ deadly Oct. 7 attack triggered a military response that Israel’s critics have said amounted to genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.
— TRUMP COLLEGE TAX RULES WORRY DEMS: Democratic lawmakers are worried proposed Trump administration rules targeting diversity initiatives on college campuses could threaten universities’ finances over commonplace activities. “What if a university has Black History Month?” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, who sits on the tax-writing Finance Committee, said in a recent interview. “Is that going to cause them to lose their tax-exempt status?” The IRS regulations proposed Sept. 3 are slated to go into effect next June. Supporters say the rules should be used to prevent schools from considering race in decisions over who they admit, hire and promote, for example.
Jordain Carney, Daniella Cheslow and Brian Faler contributed to this report.
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