For a few seismic days this summer, a scattering of towns and villages in the north of England will become the center of the political world.

The Makerfield parliamentary by-election on June 18 is an improbable setting for a political earthquake.

By-elections — the British equivalent of a U.S. special election — are held when a member of Parliament resigns, dies or (this being Britain) becomes so enmeshed in tabloid scandal that they are flung out of office by angry voters.

There are usually a handful each year, and they tend to be of fleeting political interest — offering a brief snapshot of public sentiment.

Turnout is generally low. Governing parties tend to do poorly. Sometimes a seat changes hands — but with 650 members of Parliament, a single by-election rarely constitutes a significant shift in power. Most are quickly forgotten.

Makerfield is different, in every sense. Here, a few thousand voters in this proudly unglamorous corner of England will choose the future direction of the U.K.

The reason why lies 200 miles away in Westminster, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government is on its knees. Starmer has had a miserable time since winning a landslide general election two years ago. He is historically unpopular, and Labour has collapsed in the polls. Many in the party want a change of leader, with Nigel Farage’s populist-right Reform Party on the march and threatening to sweep to power at the next general election, currently expected in 2029.

But the most viable candidate to take over from Starmer — the most popular figure by far with grassroots Labour Party members — is not an MP at all.

Andy Burnham is a former Labour Cabinet minister, but quit Westminster almost a decade ago to become the Mayor of Greater Manchester. He now oversees England’s second city, and a surrounding region of 2.8 million people — roughly the size of Baltimore and its wider metropolitan area. It has proved an enviable power base.

Burnham, 56, has a populist touch many feel Starmer, 63, lacks. His ability to connect with ordinary voters, and to vocally fight for his region against perceived “Westminster elites,” has struck a chord. He is ambitious and clearly yearns for Downing Street. But he needs a path back to Parliament, and fast.

And so to Makerfield, a parliamentary district 20 miles west of Manchester. Makerfield is not so much a place as a collection of places — of small towns and suburbs in the former industrial heartland midway between Manchester and Liverpool.

Last month, with Starmer’s leadership under intense scrutiny following a catastrophic showing in local authority elections, Makerfield’s Labour MP, Josh Simons — once a close ally of Starmer, but no longer — announced he was resigning from parliament to provide Burnham a route back to Westminster.

In some ways Makerfield is the ideal seat for Burnham. He grew up and still lives in the surrounding area. He was the MP for neighboring Leigh for 15 years. He knows it well.

In other ways, it looks immensely challenging, for this will be no coronation. To become the local MP, Burnham first has to win the by-election triggered by Simons’ resignation. And this is precisely the sort of seat — white working class, Brexit-supporting, furious with the traditional political parties — where support for Reform has surged.

Farage has vowed to throw everything he has at winning the seat. The Reform candidate, Robert Kenyon, is a local plumber who was beaten by Simons in 2024. (Simons received 18,000 votes to Kenyon’s 12,800.) Since then, Labour’s popularity has nosedived, while support for Farage’s party has surged. Were they facing any other candidate, Reform would be red-hot favorites to pick up the seat.

But Burnham is no ordinary Labour candidate. Greater Manchester is his manor, where his name recognition is near-universal. He vastly out-performs Labour on any generic ballot. By-elections are notoriously hard to predict — and this one is expected to be tight — but he has every chance of success.

The stakes are sky high. If Burnham wins on June 18, he will immediately challenge Starmer for the leadership. He appears to have the support among Labour MPs and party members to succeed. Britain would likely have a new prime minister — and an entirely new direction — by the fall.

But if Burnham loses on June 18, his pathway back to Westminster would remain closed. And the argument that he’s the best candidate for Labour to take on Reform would have been thoroughly disproved at the ballot box.

Starmer would likely face a leadership challenge from elsewhere. But no other candidate looks assured of success. Starmer may limp on, perhaps all the way to the general election. And perhaps — if current polls are to be believed — to crushing defeat.

Such is the power invested in the people of Makerfield, where a few thousand swing voters now find themselves deciding the next leader of Britain. The whole world will be watching as they make their choice.

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