NEW DELHI: India’s higher education system is still expanding, but the latest numbers suggest it is not expanding fast enough to make the National Education Policy’s 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) target by 2035 look comfortably within reach.The education ministry’s All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 2023-24 report, released on Wednesday along with the 2022-23 report, shows total enrollment rising from 4.33 crore in 2021-22 to 4.46 crore in 2022-23 and 4.50 crore in 2023-24. GER moved from 28.4% to 29.5% and then to 30.0% over the same period.Enrolment grew by around 13 lakh between 2021-22 and 2022-23, but only by about 3.7 lakh in 2023-24. GER improved by 1.1 percentage points in 2022-23, but only 0.5 percentage point in 2023-24. At the latest annual pace, India would be nowhere near 50% by 2035; to reach that mark from the current 30.0%, the system would need to add roughly 1.8 percentage points every year.The latest report says AISHE “underscores India’s continued progress towards an equitable, inclusive, and expanding higher education system,” but also points to “areas requiring targeted policy intervention to improve quality, regional balance, and institutional capacity.”The institutional base has continued to grow. Registered universities rose to 1,289 in 2023-24 from 1,213 in 2022-23, while registered colleges increased to 48,246 from 46,624. But college expansion remains heavily private-led: 70.0% of responding colleges in 2023-24 were private unaided, while government colleges accounted for 17.1% and private aided colleges 12.9%.The access story also remains uneven. All-India GER was 30.0%, but SC GER stood at 27.8% and ST GER at 22.8%, showing that tribal participation remains well below the national average. High-GER States/ UTs include Puducherry at 72.3%, Chandigarh at 58.5%, Delhi at 53.0%, Tamil Nadu at 52.3%, Uttarakhand at 48.5%, Telangana at 46.6%, Himachal Pradesh at 46.4% and Karnataka at 41.9%. By contrast, several large-population states continue to carry the enrollment burden while remaining closer to, or below, the national average.The report’s own caveat matters: AISHE is based on “voluntary uploading of data” by higher education institutions, with non-response addressed through pooling and estimation. The direction of travel is positive, but the pace is the warning light.