Republicans are mourning the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham while grappling with his absence’s sweeping impact on their agenda.

Funeral arrangements for the four-term South Carolina lawmaker have not yet been set, and could further disrupt lawmakers’ brief voting schedule in Washington before leaving for August recess. But Graham’s position as a power broker between the Senate and President Donald Trump puts the fate of several legislative priorities in question.

Most immediately this week, GOP leaders had been counting on Graham to help rally support behind Trump’s nominee for attorney general, Todd Blanche, with a handful of fellow Republicans at risk of withholding their vote. Blanche is set to testify this week with hopes of being confirmed by the first week of August.

Graham’s death also brings Senate Republicans’ already narrow majority to 52-47 — and functionally even narrower as the return of Sen. Mitch McConnell — who released a lengthy health statement yesterday — remains to be determined.

That tight margin may also further jeopardize the fate of the annual defense policy bill, which leadership had planned to bring to the floor this week as a major goal of the July legislative sprint. Graham was set to play a key role during floor debate as Democrats threaten to abandon the typically bipartisan legislation (more on that below).

Also pressing: Graham’s death is a setback for a new party-line spending package with a $350 billion boost in defense funding amid the Iran war, especially as the Pentagon warns Republicans about potential lapses in troop pay. As Budget chair, Graham would’ve led the chamber’s effort, which was already facing steep odds.

Sen. Ron Johnson is next in line to wield the Budget gavel and on Sunday said he’s prepared to take over. Unlike Graham, Johnson is much more mindful of deficits than bulking up the Pentagon budget.

And looking ahead to next Congress: Graham had tentatively been up next to take up the Judiciary gavel after Sen. Chuck Grassley terms out. That means Sen. Mike Lee would be next in line — if he wanted to give up his post as chair of Energy and Natural Resources.

Jockeying to replace Graham in both the short and long term has quietly begun. The GOP will have to run in a snap primary to replace Graham on the ballot in South Carolina, which is set to take place on Aug. 11.

Senior House Republicans quickly began lobbying behind the scenes against picking a member of the House for Graham’s seat to finish out this Congress, since it would shave down an already tiny majority, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke anonymously to describe private conversations.

What else we’re watching: 

— VANCE HUDDLES WITH HOUSE GOP AS FLOOR REMAINS FROZEN: Vice President JD Vance will speak with House Republicans Tuesday morning and encourage them to reopen the floor and advance Trump’s agenda. Conference Chair Lisa McClain invited Vance to the House GOP Members Conference at the RNC to deliver remarks and take questions.
House GOP leaders have asked the White House for help leaning on Republican holdouts who are blocking floor business with demands ranging from passage of the SAVE America Act to a House vote on immigration policies, according to two people granted anonymity to comment on internal discussions.

— NDAA IN JEOPARDY AS SENATE DEMS DEFECT: Senate Democrats are currently on track to block the annual defense policy bill over frustrations about the Iran war and Congress’ absence in authorizing it, two Senate Democratic aides, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO. Senate Republicans are expected to bring the must-pass measure to the floor this week, which would force Democrats to take a difficult vote. The vote was teed up before Graham’s death, which could complicate the schedule. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in a letter to colleagues Monday morning criticized Trump’s military funding requests, saying Republicans “are pushing to advance the annual NDAA while refusing to negotiate on the President’s bloated, partisan topline budget request.”

Katherine Tully-McManus, Jordain Carney, Chris Marquette, Adam Wren, Meredith Lee Hill, Mia McCarthy, Kyle Cheney, Alec Hernandez

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