NEW DELHI: The end of the Budget session of Parliament this year marked a rare high for the opposition. The Congress-led INDIA bloc united with other opposition parties to prevent the Centre from passing a Constitution Amendment Bill. The Bill linked implementation of women’s reservation to delimitation. This was on April 17. Nearly three months down the line, as parties gear up for the Monsoon session from July 20, the euphoria of this triumph has been replaced by concern among the opposition ranks.The Bill that they had managed to stop in its tracks during the Budget session could make its way back in the Monsoon session and garner greater support in Parliament. In April, 298 members supported the Bill in Lok Sabha while 230 opposed it. MPs supporting the Bill were way more than those opposing it but were short of the two-thirds majority of 352 (out of 528) needed for the passage of the Constitution Amendment Bill.So, what has changed in three months? Well, a lot. Parties have split. Opposition numbers in Parliament have come down. Long-time allies have turned into foes. The opposition camp is in disarray and the regional parties under its fold are now a weakened force.And, that is why the upcoming Monsoon session may be interesting to watch. The BJP, still smarting from the rare failure on the Constitution Amendment Bill, is reportedly working behind the scenes to ensure a two-thirds majority to push through its important pending legislations, including the delimitation bill.The Congress has accused Union home minister Amit Shah of trying to “engineer” a two-third majority for the BJP in Lok Sabha and alleges he is busy breaking opposition parties while making a “complete mockery of democracy” but his “evil designs” will not succeed.“Never before has anybody tried to engineer a two-third majority for his party in the Lok Sabha as the Union Home Minister is desperately doing these days in the run-up to the Monsoon Session of Parliament. The self-styled Chanakya had been humiliated on April 17 2026 when the NDA could not get the requisite two-third majority. Stung by that resounding defeat, Shah is now busy breaking opposition parties and making a complete “mockery of democracy”, Congress general secretary in-charge communications Jairam Ramesh said in a post on X..The three months between the two sessions saw four important political developments that have together put the NDA in command and the opposition on the backfoot.

First blow: Raghav’s rebellion stings AAP

On April 24, exactly seven days after NDA’s Lok Sabha setback, the opposition suffered the first blow as 7 MPs of Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP broke ranks with the party in Rajya Sabha and aligned with the BJP. Since, the breakaway group’s strength was more than two-thirds of the total 10 MPs the party had in the Upper House, the defection did not come under the purview of the anti-defection law. The rebellion, which came as a surprise to Arvind Kejriwal, reduced AAP’s strength in Rajya Sabha to 3.

Second blow: Mamata’s defeat and Trinamool implosion

The second blow to opposition came from West Bengal, where BJP ended Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year-rule and successfully snatched a key state from the hands of the opposition. While the defeat stunned Mamata, what hurt her and the opposition camp more was the implosion which threatened the very existence of the Trinamool Congress. 20 MPs of the Trinamool Congress raised a banner of revolt against Mamata and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee and announced to align with the BJP in Lok Sabha. This list of 20 included several of Mamata’s loyalists and was enough to avoid any action under the anti-defection law. To make matters worse, several Rajya Sabha members of Trinamool also joined this rebellion. However, since their numbers were less, they resigned from the party and their membership from the Upper House.

Third blow: Shiv Sena split

The opposition camp suffered another blow in June when 6 out of the 9 MPs of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena decided to dump the party and join hands with Eknath Shinde. The six MPs submitted a letter to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla indicating their decision to join the Shinde camp. For Uddhav this was the second time that he faced rebellion from within the ranks. The Shiv Sena suffered a massive vertical split in 2022 when Shinde led a rebellion of party MLAs. Uddhav eventually lost control of the party and symbol.

Fourth blow: Congress-DMK split

The fourth blow to the opposition camp came from Tamil Nadu. M K Stalin’s DMK, which had aligned with the Congress, lost the 2026 assembly elections to actor-tuned-politician Vijay. Ideally, this poll upset should not have impacted the opposition’s national politics. After all, the silver lining was that the BJP-AIADMK alliance had failed in the state. But that was not to be. Vijay’s TVK got a big mandate but not enough to ensure a government on its own. Vijay needed help and the Congress was more than ready to chip in. So, the grand-old-party moved swiftly to dump DMK and join hands with TVK. This set the stage for one of the biggest disruptions in the INDIA bloc since it was formed. The DMK snapped all ties with the Congress, sought a separate seating plan in Parliament, walked out of the INDIA bloc and, if some reports are to be believed, is also flirting with the idea of some sort of coordination on its terms with the BJP.

‘DMK may try to get even with Congress’

Arun Ram, Tamil Nadu Resident Editor of The Times of India, feels the prospect of DMK supporting the Union government on some bills cannot be completely ruled out.“The DMK may support the Union government on some bills to get even with the Congress or also to not appear completely friendless,” says Arun Ram.“DMK cannot go back on some of its stated positions, like on delimitation, three-language formula. But, yes on some of the bills it may back the Union government. For instance, if the BJP completely delinks the Women’s Reservation Bill from the Delimitation Bill, the DMK may support the government on Women’s Bill,” he adds.

Misplaced confidence?

Now, that is a prospect which could deal a body blow to the INDIA bloc. DMK has 22 members in Lok Sabha and if Stalin decides even a tactical association with the NDA – it could disrupt opposition math. For now, the opposition is trying to put up a brave front knowing that two-third majority in a House of 543 translates into numbers which, at least on paper, looks beyond the reach of NDA. The Congress has claimed that it will not let the “evil designs” of BJP to succeed. But this Congress confidence could well be misplaced. What the opposition needs to understand is that two-thirds majority is a number that can change depending on how many members are present for the voting. We have already seen the BJP surprise many times when it comes to managing numbers in Parliament.