The U.S. government is on track to reach its $41.1 trillion debt limit next year — likely between late winter and mid-summer, a trusted independent forecaster predicted Thursday.

The new projection comes from the Bipartisan Policy Center, which used the latest data on U.S. cash flow to predict when the nation will again risk defaulting on its billions of dollars in loans, after Republicans acted last summer to raise the limit by $5 trillion through their One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Now the next Congress and President Donald Trump will need to enact a new law to further raise or waive the borrowing cap, in order to stave off an unprecedented U.S. debt default many economists predict would depress the global economy.

Once the debt limit is reached, the Treasury Department begins what it calls “extraordinary measures” to tap cash reserves and use accounting maneuvers that keep the U.S. from breaching the ceiling. Those cash-conservation tactics are likely to buy another six to nine months, the nonpartisan think tank predicts.

Voting to allow the federal government to rack up more red ink comes with growing political risk for U.S. elected officials as the country’s debt eclipses its gross domestic product and voters increasingly voice concern about the U.S. deficit.

Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper predicted earlier this year that federal debt held by the public will rise from more than 100 percent of GDP this year to 120 percent in a decade, far exceeding the previous high of 106 percent of GDP in 1946. At the same time, new polling shows that more U.S. adults now view the deficit as a bigger problem than they did a year ago, as the United States is on track to spend $2 trillion more than it takes in during the current fiscal year.

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